TORONTO - Tax hikes on high income earners and smokers to help fund public transit are expected to be a key part of today's Ontario budget.

But the question remains -- will it trigger an election or will the NDP again prop up the minority Liberal government.

The New Democrats didn't make specific budget demands as they did in the past two years, but warn they won't support any new taxes, tolls or fees on the middle class.

It appears the Liberals are ready to meet the NDP's conditions by increasing taxes on the wealthy and eliminating some corporate tax credits, as well as introducing a provincial pension plan, an idea the New Democrats championed in the past.

The Canadian Press has learned the government has hired Michael Nobrega, the recently retired CEO of the $60 billion Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System fund, to be the "implementation lead" for the new provincial pension plan.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath says she wants to actually see the budget, and consult with the public, before she announces whether or not her party can support the Liberals on the confidence vote that will follow within the next few weeks.

What's expected?

A series of official pre-budget announcements and some unofficial leaks have provided a good snapshot of what may be in Finance Minister Charles Sousa's fiscal plan:

From government announcements:

  • A new Ontario Retirement Pension Plan, which will require contributions from employers and workers.
  • $29 billion over 10 years for transit and transportation infrastructure, including $15 billion for massive public transit expansion in Toronto-Hamilton area.
  • Part of the money for transit to be raised by re-directing gas tax revenues and issuing green bonds.
  • $2.5 billion over 10 years in corporate grants to secure new investments and jobs.
  • $1 billion to develop the Ring of Fire mineral deposit in norther Ontario.
  • $269 million over three years to raise wages of licensed child-care workers.
  • $280 million over three years to increase pay for personal support workers in the home-care sector.
  • $1 million to give grants to seniors to help them stay in their homes longer.
  • $50 million a year to help would-be parents pay for in vitro fertilization treatments.

From documents obtained by The Canadian Press from a source outside the government:

  • Increased taxes on high income earners and tobacco.
  • Removal of some corporate tax credits to help pay for the transit plan.
  • A four-cent-a-litre hike in the tax on aviation fuel, phased in over four years, to help fund transit and infrastructure projects.