WINDSOR, ONT -- Health officials in Windsor-Essex are urging residents to heed advisories to stay home and limit travel in the face of a projected surge of COVID-19 cases.
On Sunday, top health leaders in Windsor-Essex held a conference call to lay out the situation the region’s healthcare system is facing.
Windsor Regional Hospital President and CEO, David Musyj, says area hospitals could see an estimated 12,000 patients in local intensive care units if the spread of COVID-19 is not contained. Musyj has based his calculation on the projected infection rate of 60 per cent associated with COVID-19 and the observed roughly 5 per cent of cases of the novel coronavirus which require a patient to be admitted to the ICU.
“That’s a big number,” said Musyj. “So, when we say ‘flatten the curve’ we’re trying to get that 60 per cent down to 50, 40, 30, 20 [per cent]. You’ve got to get it down so you don’t have that 5 per cent being a big number.”
So far, COVID-19 patients don’t have short stays in hospital; according to Musyj, stays can typically last for three weeks in an ICU bed.
Musyj says there is a projected “dramatic surge in cases across Ontario” and is urging residents to stay home.
The warning comes as the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit reported its largest single-day jump in confirmed COVID-19 cases yet.
A total of 10 new cases were reported on Sunday, bringing the number of COVID-19 cases in Windsor-Essex up to 25 — some of which have no association with travel.
“There must be community transmission going on,” said Dr. Wajid Ahmed, the medical officer of health for Windsor-Essex.
Windsor Regional has eight COVID-19 in-patients, three of who are in intensive care while three of those eight have no history of recent travel.
At Leamington’s Erie Shores Healthcare, there are three in-patients suspected of having the virus according to the hospital’s CEO, Janice Dawson.
“Our emergency room is starting to see a little bit more activity as patients are starting to come in a little bit more frequently than what we’ve seen with those symptoms of COVID — the coughs, the fever, the shortness of breath,” said Dawson.
A total of 42 in-patients have been tested in Leamington according to Dawson, of which two were transferred to Windsor Regional, two test results are pending and the remaining 38 tested negative for the virus.
In all, there have been 856 local tests, of which 489 are pending results.
The recent bump in confirmed cases in Windsor-Essex is not unexpected, as public health labs begin to clear the backlog of testing samples.
“It’s not like we went from one to ten in a day,” said Dr. Wassim Saad, the chief of professional staff at Windsor Regional.
Saad says now that a public health lab in London has begun to accept samples, test results should be provided much quicker — between 24 and 48 hours.
While the latest uptick in COVID-19 cases in the region shouldn’t alarm residents, Assad urges the public to take the threat seriously.
“It’s definitely here. We know it’s here,” said Saad. “We know that there’s going to be — it’s not just imported cases — that we’re going to potentially see some community spread.”
At this time, recommended measures like social distancing, hand washing and abstaining from non-essential travel are all crucial to reducing the spread of the virus according to Ahmed.
As community spread of the virus is monitored, Ahmed says testing criteria may shift. However, Ahmed cautions residents the best course of action may still be to remain at home and monitor for any symptoms.
“Now we are anticipating community transmission, it’s better for them to stay home,” said Ahmed. “And if they need any clinical care, that’s the time when they should be going out for testing or connecting with their healthcare provider.”
For many, COVID-19 can be overcome with little difficulty.
Both Musyj and Saad note about 80 per cent of patients will experience only mild symptoms while a further 13-15 per cent may require hospitalization. However, Musyj stresses the key to preventing widespread transmission and crippling local hospital capacity, is by staying home.
“Those who are generally healthy, don’t have any co-morbid conditions think, ‘I’m fine, even if I get it I’m going to be part of the 80 per cent,’” said Musyj. “They’re going to be the vectors that pass it onto people that aren’t going to be that lucky.”
Musyj says the 550 beds across both campuses of Windsor Regional are at 50 per cent occupancy and says a further 109 beds have been added to expand capacity for the expected surge of COVID-19 patients.
As for personal protective equipment for healthcare workers, Musyj says the hospital has a pandemic supply it’s prepared following the SARS outbreak, but admits administration is concerned about replenishing the supply. Musyj says work is underway to restock the shelves as staff use the necessary protective equipment.
