Dreaming of white Christmas in Windsor? Maybe, maybe not

Windsor, Ont. -

At this point, there’s a 50-50 chance of a white Christmas in Windsor-Essex this year, according to officials with Environment and Climate Change Canada.

Warning preparedness meteorologist Peter Kimbell says it’s too early to say for sure, noting a significant warm temperature record was set in the city this past Saturday.

“Climatologically, it’s about a 50-50 chance,” says Kimbell. “We know that this week is going to be warm, so no snow this week, but after Friday night, all bets are off.”

Kimbell says it reached 15.5 C in Windsor on Saturday, which broke the 72-year-old record of 15 C set in 1949.

He notes another warm day that could flirt with records is in store this Thursday, before things cool down.

“We’ve actually hit almost 20 degrees in Windsor in December before,” Kimbell explains. “We can certainly get snow on Christmas Eve or maybe the 23rd or even Christmas Day and we’ll have a white Christmas, but that kind of level of predictability doesn’t exist yet.”

Kimbell says Environment Canada’s weather models can’t quite predict with certainty the last few days leading up to Christmas, yet.

“Our forecasts continue to improve about one day every ten years or so but forecasting what the weather will be ten days, 12 days from now isn’t really good enough yet to be able to tell you whether we will have snow on Christmas Day,” he says.

Kimbell adds Windsor is traditionally one of the warmest places in the province on December 25, suggesting there’s a greater chance of snowfall elsewhere in southern Ontario.

“My best bet is that for areas like Sarnia, Middlesex County, Huron-Perth, I’d say a better than 50 per cent chance,” Kimbell says. “Probably a 70 per cent chance of a white Christmas.”