Did Windsor make the right call on HAF? What a housing expert thinks of the debate

The City of Windsor’s failed bid for as much as $70 million in support to build more affordable homes through Ottawa’s Housing Accelerator Fund has been called a “missed opportunity” by some while others appear pleased council decided against rolling back restrictive zoning to secure the cash.

An unscientific CTV News Windsor poll asking if the federal government required too much of the city to be awarded the cash saw more than two-thirds of more than 500 votes indicate “yes” — the price was too steep.

The issue rested on a requirement to allow fourplex as-of-right zoning in residential areas. The province had already mandated three units as-of-right for the same low-density neighbourhoods across Ontario as governments push to densify and make better use of already-serviced land.

In the midst of a housing affordability crisis, what does a housing expert think of the debate and the decision in Windsor? We put those questions to Mike Moffatt, an economist and senior director of policy and innovation at the Smart Prosperity Institute.

What follows is a CTV interview edited for content and clarity:

Q: First off, what is your initial reaction to the decision we saw [Housing Minister Sean] Fraser come out with in his letter to Windsor’s mayor?

A: Well, I think the federal government telegraphed that they had this line in the sand. I think they were concerned that if they made these concessions to Windsor that they'd have to do it for every other city in Canada. Windsor is certainly within his rights to not participate in this program. It is a voluntary program, but the federal government I think made it clear that four units as-of-right is a condition that is a must have for this. Windsor chose not to do that for whatever reason.

Q: So, where does this leave Windsor in terms of meeting the housing challenge? They put forward a plan as part of their submission. How hard is that challenge and where does it leave the city?

A: Well, overall, those other initiatives are certainly positive. Windsor can go on without this money. You know, this is kind of a pot sweetener to get cities to be able to use this money to digitize processes. London, Ontario is using it to convert office buildings and parking lots into housing. So, there's a lot of different uses for this money. But, you know, again, some cities might just decide that that the money is not worth it. And it seems that that's the direction that Windsor has gone in.

I think that there's a recognition that the Ontario government is pushing cities towards three units as-of-right but Ottawa wants to see cities go further and go four units as-of-right. I think this is going to create some tensions between the municipal government and the federal government.

A house under construction is seen in Windsor, Ont. in this undated image. (CTV News Windsor)Q: Outside of the politics of it here Mike, in terms of the of the public policy portion when we look at the city's plan saying ‘We're going to allow fourplex construction along these corridors’ as opposed to deep within the neighborhoods where we have mainly single family homes where does that put it in terms of meeting the housing challenge? Is something like that going to be enough? Or could that leave us in a situation where in 20 years down the line we're going to be back in the same situation because we didn't densify enough along those main arterial routes?

A: Yeah, I think it's going to be tough for Windsor and for a lot of cities across southern Ontario unless they densify. We know population growth is extensive right now. Windsor is one of the fastest growing communities in Canada. So there's a need to build more housing and you can either build up or you can build out — both have challenges. And I think at some point, you know, we have to sort of be realistic about our housing need and how fast our population is growing.

Some councils are more aggressive on building housing than others. We'll have to see how this plays out. You know, the mayor and council could be correct that there are alternative ways to do it. It's just going to be more challenging; first of all without this money, and secondly, without legalizing this density in existing neighborhoods.

Q: When the conversation came to gentle density, council couldn't get over that hump. It seems like it's a pretty low bar. What does that tell you about our approach to housing, at least in Windsor?

A: Windsor is fighting that sort of tradeoff between wanting to keep neighborhoods unchanged and the need for more density. You know, Windsor has decided to err more on the side of keeping neighborhoods unchanged, which again, just means that those extra families are going to have to find somewhere else to live so it's going to create the need for more density somewhere else. But these tensions are not unique to Windsor. We're seeing them in London and Ottawa and cities all across Canada. Windsor, for whatever reason seems to be more protective of existing neighbourhoods than other communities.

Q: I think that's one question that we kind of keep coming back to on all of this as we see [the number of cities approved through HAF] approaching 30 cities. What makes Windsor so different from all these other cities?

A: It is a little surprising that other cities, you know, have concerns, and we shouldn't we shouldn't downplay that, but they’ve found a way to work around that to work with the federal government to get this money. Windsor for whatever reason has drawn a line in the sand and yeah, I don't really know if it's just a matter of the personalities involved, but I don't think at the end of the day that Windsor is really that much different than most communities in southern Ontario when it comes to these challenges, but it is surprising that, you know, the city couldn't get this over the line when other cities have found a way to make it work.

Q: How successful have we been [at building homes] now that the housing crisis has become more top of mind?

A: Unfortunately, the housing stock numbers have not been great. We were down about 7 per cent in 2023, relative to 2022, and 2022 was less than 2021. Now, a lot of that has to do with economic conditions — higher interest rates, slowing economy and so forth. The first half of 2024 doesn't look any more promising but hopefully with these new initiatives and hopefully we start to see interest rates go down we can start to get a lot more shovels in the ground.

I think every city's going to have to find novel approaches to build homes, including Windsor. There's a lot more left to do. I think, in general, most of these moves across all orders of government have been positive. They just haven't been enough to counteract these economic effects that we're seeing.