Windsor-Essex prepares for potential trade impact following Trump’s reelection

With Donald Trump set to return to the White House for a second term, leaders in Windsor-Essex are closely monitoring potential impacts on cross-border trade and manufacturing.

Trump’s “America First” policies during his first term included sweeping tariffs and renegotiations of major trade agreements, such as the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

That deal, governing trade between Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, is scheduled for review in 2026, meaning Trump’s influence will likely play a role in shaping its future.

Windsor–Tecumseh MP Irek Kusmierczyk believes Windsor’s proximity to the border and economic interdependence with the U.S. make it uniquely tuned into the election's potential impacts.

“I don't think there's a community in Canada that has paid more closely attention to this election because we know that border communities like ours are so integrated,” Kusmierczyk said.

Kusmierczyk remains confident his government is prepared to navigate Trump’s return to the White House, noting that they’ve worked with him before.

“We know how to work with President Trump,” he said. “We’re prepared for this.”

Flavio Volpe, President of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, echoes Kusmierczyk’s sentiment.

Volpe sees the familiarity of Trump’s leadership style as a potential advantage for the automotive industry, which heavily relies on cross-border trade.

“At the very least, we know the Trump playbook,” Volpe said. “In his first administration, whatever he said, he meant it. So at the very least, you can figure that part out.”

Adding industry perspective, automotive journalist Greg Layson suggests that, while the industry has grown accustomed to Trump’s policies, there’s still some uncertainty about new tariffs or trade disruptions.

“There are smarter people than I working at auto companies who have been planning contingency plans for both sides, depending on who won,” Layton said. “So, I'm sure they're prepared for this, but they do not like uncertainty.”

He said he’d bet on things in the automotive industry remaining status quo into 2026 – at least between Canada and the U.S.

Including the amount of investment from American companies placed in Ontario.

“Don't expect any new announcements in Ontario that haven't already been announced,” he said.

“Maybe something from overseas, in terms of batteries and battery production, that's a possibility, but I don't foresee any new investment from anything domestically in the United States, in any country outside of the United States, because you run the risk of upsetting a very nationalistic, very protective Donald Trump,” Layton said.

Though Volpe acknowledges Trump’s protectionist policies could pose challenges, he believes Canadian manufacturers have learned to adapt.

“We are in a new world. And that world is four years long, at least. Those are very important timelines for the automotive business,” he added.

As the USMCA review approaches, both Volpe and Kusmierczyk underscore the importance of keeping trade disruptions minimal.

“The message that we keep hammering time and again is, we are such an integrated economy, but anything that disrupts it, any barriers to trade, will impact Canadian but will also impact American workers,” Kusmierczyk said.

Windsor Mayor Drew Dilkens believes the region will have to wait until the dust has settled before they can separate Trump’s true plans from the “political rhetoric” candidates use on the campaign trail.

“He's a guy who wants to make deals. He's a businessman at heart and certainly, you know, we're a trading nation,” Dilkens said. “We're going to figure these things out together.”

Though talks of tariffs can make people's "antennae go up,” he feels the Trump administration will have its “cannons” aimed at countries like China.

A former International Trade Officer at the Canadian Consulate in Detroit, Dilkens noted previous tariff wars between Canada and its largest trading partner have always reached a resolution.

“So, I think things are going to be fine, but it's going to be a little rocky until we hear the actual political agenda that’s in place,” Dilkens noted.

For Dilkens, the focus will be on the Inflation Reduction Act and decisions related to electric vehicle manufacturing.

NextStar Energy, Canada’s first large-scale electric vehicle battery plant in Windsor, Ont., recently started the production of battery modules. Plant officials expect the production of battery cells to begin next year.

“We have a lot invested in that evolution, to electric vehicle and electrification of vehicles, and so I don't see that all evaporating,” he said. “I think the industry will be guided by what the public is prepared to pay and the public's adoption rate of electric vehicles.”

Trump is set to be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.