Windsor-Essex, Chatham-Kent housing prices may drop by 20 per cent by the end of 2023: report

The average price of a home in Ontario could fall 18 per cent from its peak by the end of 2023, according to a new report by Desjardins.

The report says homes outside the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) could fall even more, by 20 per cent, with the biggest declines in Windsor-Essex, Chatham-Kent and Bancroft.

“We've been seeing a shift happening across Windsor-Essex County in the last two months. We have started to see the price decrease,” Dan Gemus, owner of Dan Gemus Real Estate said.

Since the Bank of Canada began to raise interest rates in order to combat inflation, home prices have steadily declined across the country.

However Desjardins’ price drop prediction is being met with skepticism by some local realtors.

“I have a hard time believing that due to the fact that when we have jobs, we're good,” said Goran Todorovic, owner of Team Goran Remax Care Realty. “Now more than ever, the economic impact for this area is massive.”

Biggest price swings in Ontario. (Source: Desjardins)Gemus also believes the recent investments into Windsor’s economy, such as the $5 billion EV battery plant will prevent local prices from falling drastically in the long run.

“I think Windsor-Essex is going to be among the last to see the complete pressure come off. We're still going to see those in the GTA coming here for a while longer,” Gemus said.

Both Goran and Gemus agree buyers have more options in today’s market with higher inventory.

“What's happening with this market softening is that most homeowners are still listing aggressively. However, when no offers are coming in at the end of the week, we find them often re-listing closer to what they're expecting,” said Gemus.

Wendy Sutton listed her LaSalle home two weeks ago and was shocked by the lack of interest.

“We’ve had no viewings, no phone calls. We had an open house last Sunday and not one person came,” said Sutton.

Ontario forecast for home price growth. (Source: Desjardins)Sutton believes if she listed her home six months earlier, she would have been able to sell a lot easier.

“I think that we kind of missed the housing market with the interest rates going up,” she said.

Her family has made an offer on a property in Alberta, but it’s contingent on the sale of their LaSalle home.

“We'll have to wait for the market to change or for the offer we need to come in. Hopefully, the property that we're looking at out west will still be available for us,” Sutton said.

On the other end of the spectrum, buyers are welcoming the news of a housing price drop.

“My wife and I started looking for a home right at the end of 2020,” said Windsorite Joshua Bornais. “We saw about 70 houses and offered on about 20 of them. We lost every single offer.”

Bornais said he is more optimistic for the future and will resume searching for a house soon.