Windsor-Essex still trending up in COVID-19 prevalence estimate

COVID-19 prevalence chart for Windsor-Essex on Jan. 12, 2022. (Source: Government of Canada)

Windsor, Ont. -

Some regions of Canada may be close to the peak of Omicron and trending down, but Windsor-Essex is still trending up, according to COVID-19 prevalence modelling.

A government website monitoring virus projection estimates shows peak infections could be reached within a week in parts of the country.

The current prevalence estimate for the Windsor-Essex County Health Unit region is 22.1854%. The one week prediction is 25.5229%.

The prediction graph shows the region could reach the peak sometime next week.

The website estimates trends in COVID-19 prevalence based on existing epidemiological information, but notes that prevalence is modelled based on reported case counts. As testing is reduced and case reporting limited, prevalence may incorrectly appear to decline.

The site says trends should be compared to other data such as hospitalizations and deaths to assess if prevalence is actually rising or falling.

The tool is designed for the Canadian Armed Forces to understand their risk level in different areas of Canada and internationally, and isn’t used to advise other aspects of government.

"The tool was made available globally to provide easy access to CAF medical advisors irrespective of their location and as part of the Government of Canada open data initiative," a spokesperson told CTV News in an email.

"It is important to note that the numbers found in this model are not case numbers, but rather estimates based on existing epidemiological information."

Projections on the website are similar for Toronto, Montreal and Halifax, where cases are also expected to drop in the coming weeks. B.C.'s top doctor says the COVID-19 peak there is a few weeks away.

University of Toronto epidemiologist Colin Furness told CTVNews.ca it is difficult to know when a peak is happening until it has actually passed.

"You can only find the peak in the rear-view mirror. We can make some guesses based on modelling about when we expect peaks to happen. But really, you don't know until you're past it," Furness said in a telephone interview Wednesday.

With files from CTVNews.ca.