Record-low ice coverage reported on the Great Lakes

The Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research (GLIER) based in Windsor has reported the lowest levels of ice coverage on the Great Lakes recorded in the last 50 years.

As of Wednesday, there is less than 0.4 per cent of ice coverage across all five of the Great Lakes and 0 per cent ice coverage on Lake Erie, according to GLIER.

“It’s strange,” said Mike McKay, the director of GLIER. “[The ice coverage is] well below the historical average of about 10 per cent at this point of winter.”

The mild winter Windsor-Essex and much of Ontario has experienced thus far in the season, hasn’t allowed for ice to form and McKay blames climate warming for the change, and he adds the phenomenon is becoming more familiar.

McKay said over the last decade, the region has experienced four “low-ice winters” with little to no ice taking hold over the lakes.

“We know the Great Lakes are changing and this is one of the areas where we’re seeing the most change,” said McKay.

A more normal winter would see Lake Erie somewhere between 15 to 20 per cent ice coverage by this point in the season.

GLIER reports record-low ice coverage across the Great Lakes with 0.3 per cent coverage across the basin; Lake Erie reporting 0 per cent ice coverage as of Jan. 3, 2024. (Source: Great Lakes Institute for Environmental Research)

LACK OF ICE IMPACTS

Lakes and bays icing over serve a key function – shoreline protection.

The lack of ice cover allows wind and waves to accelerate erosion along coastlines around extreme southwestern Ontario.

“You only need to go to the Ontario coastline of western Lake Erie and see the results of erosion,” said McKay. “Bluffs that start capping because of erosionary pressures; the same thing happening in southern Lake Huron shorelines.”

McKay also said there’s good evidence the ice can help reduce the worst effects of toxic algal blooms which threaten fish and aquatic ecosystems, typically seen in the summer.

Ice cover in the winter allows nutrients like phosphorous to become embedded in the sediment of the lake, instead of continuing to be agitated by wind-churned waves.

“Without having ice cover, we see some impacts that might actually set the system up for the events like the blooms we find in Lake St. Clair and western Lake Erie,” said McKay.

FUTURE WITHOUT ICE

As the climate continues to warm, this winter may be a snapshot of winters to come in Windsor-Essex.

“This is likely a window to a future of Lake Erie where there will be no ice,” said McKay.

By 2090 or 2080, McKay projects the lake may stop seeing any ice form during the winter months as summers become warmer and too much heat remains in the meteorological system.

And in a warming lake, there could also be impacts for aquatic life and ecosystems.

“We see rapid change, certainly among members of the lower food web; plankton which are really important in sustaining the fish populations in Lake Erie,” said McKay. “How these low-ice winters are impacting the lower food web is an important question that we’re working to understand.”

Not to be forgotten – favourite winter activities like ice skating, pond hockey and ice fishing.

McKay adds there could be a societal loss and an eroding of Canadian identity, pointing to communities along Mitchell’s Bay as prime examples.

“Big ice fishing area in the wintertime and probably a big loss in terms of revenue to communities like that that have traditionally supported these winter events,” said McKay.